With the critical and financial success of Grand Theft Auto V, it would not be surprising if Red dead Redemption 2 would achieve the same. However, industry analyst Michael Goodman is not convinced that Red Dead Redemption 2 would be able to replicate the success of GTA V.
Speaking with We Write Things, director of digital media strategies at Strategy Analytics, Micheal Goodman, said that Red Dead Redemption 2 will not be as successful as GTA V and said that the game will sell more or less 14 million units if Rockstar markets the game properly.
I use [14 million] as sort of your baseline number, then it’s plus or minus that number. If they do it right, then it’ll be plus or minus that number. If they blow it, then obviously, they won’t hit [14 million]. That’s what I would think of in terms of what your market size is. I would be hard pressed to imagine a scenario where you’re going to double what the original did.
He further added that he expects Red Dead Redemption 2 sales will be much closer of 2010’s Red Dead Redemption and said that it very rare that sequels outperform the originals.
The way I think about it is you’ll get about 80 percent of the people who purchased the original, they’ll purchase the sequel. Then you’ll get about 20-30 percent of new people. That’s if you do everything right. My top end would be 110 percent of original sales and that’s really hard to do. Very rarely do sequels perform as well as their original.
Also, a rumor has made its way to the internet that suggests Red Dead Redemption 2 will follow the GTA V single-player structure and will have 3 playable characters.
Red Dead Redemption 2 is an open-world action RPG in development at Rockstar and will launch in fall 2017 for PlayStation 4 and Xbox One.