Arvind Bhatia, Sterne Agee’s analyst has estimated that Max Payne 3 will cost Rockstar approximately $105M. According to an estimate, if the stats are correct, the publisher will have to sell 4M copies to balance the accounts. The estimate is based on the previous two installments of the game which have sold 7M copies combined.
Life-to-date, the Max Payne franchise has sold through 7M units between the two prior versions — Max Payne and Max Payne 2. We think the latest iteration, Max Payne 3, has greater potential for success than either of the two prior versions
Although the break-even unit level for Max Payne 3 is likely high — probably in the 4M units range — due to its long development time, we think the title is highly anticipated and has potential for upside surprise
I am not much surprised by the estimate due to a couple of solid reasons. One, Max Payne 3 is a higly anticipated game so 4M should not be a difficult figure to attain. Second, being a Rockstar production, the chances of the game being a flop are quite slim. Max Payne 3 is set to release in March 2012.